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Press Release Category Health - Medicine - visiongain Release Date: November 15, 2004

Blockbuster drugs expected to rise by 93% to $262 billion by 2009 predicts visiongain


By visiongain
November 15, 2004
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According to the latest visiongain report "Blockbuster Drugs: A Current Assessment and Outlook for Creating Future Blockbusters", A blockbuster drug is defined as a medicine that generates more than $1 billion (U.S.) in sales in a year.


PR9.NET November 15, 2004 - San Francisco, CA and London, UK - Between 2004 and 2009, visiongain believe that at least 24 new blockbuster drugs will emerge, and a total of 93 will exist. However, a number of drugs will also lose their billion-dollar status, although growth of the industry will remain strong, driven by increasing R&D expenditure, rising living standards and an aging population.

The number of blockbuster brands per year increased from 17 in 1995 to 67 in 2003, showing an average increase of 7.5 per year. However, statistics show that there tends to be a cycle of relatively high increases for 2 years running, followed by only a modest increase in the third year. Since 1995-1997, 1998-2000 and 2001- 2003 exhibited relatively high increases in the number of blockbusters, it is expected that 2003- 2004 will see a modest increase, in the range of 3 to 5 blockbuster drugs, with a maximum of 72 drugs generating over $1 billion in 2004. By 2006 there may be as many as 82 blockbuster drugs, and this will increase in the following three years to approximately 93.

The blockbuster market in 2003 consisted of 67 drugs, which alone, generated over $136 billion.
According to in-depth analysis from Sola Neunie, of visiongain’s pharmaceutical industry analyst, this is expected to rise by 93% to $262 billion by 2009.

It is predicted that between 2004 and 2006, key areas that are exhibiting healthy sales will dominate the field. These include blood disorder treatments, anticonvulsants, bone metabolism regulators, diabetes drugs and multiple sclerosis drugs. All showed an increase in sales of 26% or more in 2003 and currently have one or more blockbusters.

The blockbuster drug industry was worth more than $157 billion in 2003, although in visiongain’s opinion the pharmaceutical industry is unlikely to grow as rapidly as in the 80’s and 90’s in the near future, rising living standards are increasing demand for better health care and access to sophisticated drugs. The industry is also being driven by the rising age of the population. This means that drugs to treat conditions such as hypertension, cholesterol and gastrointestinal disorders dominate the market. The rise in the ageing population is also evidenced by the market sectors showing the largest growth. In 2003, these included ophthalmic products, blood disorder treatments and Alzheimer’s disease therapies. Drugs for disorders that betray an increasing sedentary lifestyle and poor diet, such as diabetes, are also increasing their market share.

Visiongain predicts that the number of blockbuster drugs on the market will increase in the five years to 2009, to approximately 93, although in this time many drugs will also lose their status. Fluctuations in the market are typical of the pharmaceutical industry, due to intense competition between generic and branded drugs.


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About visiongain

Visiongain is one of the fastest growing and most innovative independent media companies in Europe today. visiongain produce a host of business-2-business conferences, newsletters, management reports and e-zines focusing on the Financial markets, the Pharmaceutical, Telecoms industries and the Defence sector.







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