Betting Experts Makes Sense of Tim Donaghy Situation
Tim Donaghy in the NBA and Scooter McDougle in college football are the most recent high profile gambling scandals. With speculation sometimes out of control, sports betting expert Joe Duffy tries to keep the debate and discussion rational.
PR9.NET June 14, 2008 - ALPHARETTA, GA - Joe Duffy is the leading authority on sports gaming strategy and issues related to sports betting. An expert guest on several nationally syndicated radio programs, his articles have appeared on top websites and publications all over the world.
Since the bombshell that NBA ref Tim Donaghy is being investigated in a gambling scandal, speculation on how he may have affected the betting outcome of games has been rampant. Veteran sports betting expert Joe Duffy brings an educated view.
Articles related to recent scandals involving possible point shaving include:
A Fair and Balanced View of Tim Donaghy's Latest Claims
Sadly though, early returns of the court of public opinion suggest Donaghy's indoctrination has been met with initial success. While Donaghy skillfully planted confirmation bias to put the NBA on the defensive, the burden of proof is on him to substantiate, not the league to negate.
NBA Totals Would Be the Easiest For Maverick Ref to Exploit
I will try a different approach of getting into the mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it without leaving telltale signs?
Rampant Speculation about Donaghygate
As an example, an "expert" often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.
Blackmail, Not Just Bribery Can Lead to Pointshaving
Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game. This is not necessarily so.
Response To Professor's Contention About Point Shaving
The pointspread is not and will never be a prediction on the outcome of the game. It is a "prediction" on what the spread needs to be to get as close to an equal amount of money on each side. The public loves betting superior against bottom shelf squads and this is accounted for in the line.
It is Good to Pick Bad
Every wannabe detective thinks they found the statistical smoking gun that Tim Donaghy pointshaved games. These conclusions are based in no small part on the epiphany that big underdogs cover at a disproportionate rate. No kidding, sharp players have known that for years.
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